it'll probably pass but it's stipulation is kind of large. It only allows one OUNCE of marijuana to be had in a household without arrest, that means that holding large amounts of marijuana will still be illegal.
Compare one measly ounce of MJ to the countless pack of cigarettes one can buy, I don't think it'll make a big taxation impact if that's your argument. Plus if people are still arrested for holding large amounts of MJ, then your 'prisons freed up' argument isn't all that solid either.
I think it's a step in the right direction, but I think it should be broadened to be truly effective. Clearly it's being passed with the idea of medical uses in thought, not wholly recreational use.