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Thread: Two by Two, We'll Fill the Planet

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    Banned tasukuchan may be famous one day tasukuchan may be famous one day tasukuchan's Avatar
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    Lightbulb Two by Two, We'll Fill the Planet

    I hand typed ---> From the LA Times (As a research Article for My English Essay Heheh) INTERESTING FACTOIDS! ^^;;



    Originally by Benjamin Zuckerman

    "Life has existed on Earth for at least 3.5 billion years and human beings for a few million. The rapid population growth that we have been experiencing in the past 100 years or so is not natural. IF the current rate of growth of world population, about 2% per year, were continued into the year 3400, approximately 1400 years from now, then each person now alive woul have 1 trillion descendants and the total human population would be about 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (10 sextillion). This is 10% of the total number of stars in the entire observable universe. Well before 3400, the average amount of land per person would have diminished to less than one square inch. According to UCLA professor and biologist Jared Diamond, the coming century will witness one of the worst extinctions in the history of life on Earth. Roughly one-half of the 30 million species that are estimated to end will become extinct, courtesy entirely of human beings. Each person plays a role in the population equation. If you and your spouse have two children and four grandchildren, then you are reproducing at replacement levels (zero population growth). But if you have four children and they in turn, each have four children so that you have 16 grandchildren, then that is roughly equivalent to the 2% per year growth rate that characterizes the world as a whole."

    (He THEN proceeds to tell us about how if we tried to ship people to other planets, those would be filled by population growth. His ratio was: In order to send the entire earth to Mars, we would have to send 10,000 people every hour on a continual basis -- but we struggle with ANNUAL launches, so how could we be doing hourly ones?)




    Personally, I don't think that these are accurate statistics. Overpopulation is a huge concern, and yes ~ he was right in stating that in the past 100 years it has become a Priority 1 for us to address! But "Having 1 trillion descendents" in 1 1/2 millenia sounds to me like he's shooting a little high. Then again, maybe not... =D Has anyone heard anything like this before??? Do these calculations add up semantically? Opinionia?
    Last edited by tasukuchan; Oct 19, 2005 at 07:56 PM.

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    Lady Barronmore Arrianna has become well known Arrianna has become well known Arrianna has become well known Arrianna's Avatar
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    Re: Two by Two, We'll Fill the Planet

    Statistics like this are based on population growth being geometric. Since the concept was created and records have been kept it has turned out that world population growth is actually arithmetic. As a result world population is showing signs of leveling and is expected to decrease since industrialized countries require immagration to increase their population. As the world industrialization continues world population is expected to drop.

    And if that makes no sense it's because I'm tired....night.
    Last edited by Arrianna; Oct 19, 2005 at 08:06 PM.

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    Banned tasukuchan may be famous one day tasukuchan may be famous one day tasukuchan's Avatar
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    Re: Two by Two, We'll Fill the Planet

    In my APSY 140 class today, they told me that a couple generations were expected to increase / decrease. She actually gave us these notes in class (hehe)

    Depression Era - Retired

    Silent Generation - Grandparents, Retired

    Boomers - Parental generation, retirement planning issues.

    GEN X - Mid 90's to current, on track for career

    GEN Y - "WhY!?" Second wave of population growth


    It's interesting but hopefully this generation will decrease eventually, and sort itself out...one thing is for sure, all these technological advances aren't helping society. Like the article I posted said "The past 100 years has been abnormal to our culture". Before that in the archaic ages, we existed in discomfort maybe ... but we were better off environmentally.

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    Commander Ham Chiefblackhammer is making a name for themselves Chiefblackhammer is making a name for themselves Chiefblackhammer is making a name for themselves Chiefblackhammer's Avatar
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    Re: Two by Two, We'll Fill the Planet

    The earth in no way could support such a number of people, in biology they teach about carrying capacity but rather than explain all this stuff just look at the below link which also addresses what Arrianna was saying about geometric vs arithmetic

    http://www.biology.iupui.edu/biocour...k4ch39pop.html

    Also please note that I have no affiliation with IUPUI, they just have it spelled out fairly well.


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    Banned tasukuchan may be famous one day tasukuchan may be famous one day tasukuchan's Avatar
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    Re: Two by Two, We'll Fill the Planet

    Quote Originally Posted by chiefblackhammer
    The earth in no way could support such a number of people, in biology they teach about carrying capacity but rather than explain all this stuff just look at the below link which also addresses what Arrianna was saying about geometric vs arithmetic

    http://www.biology.iupui.edu/biocour...k4ch39pop.html

    Also please note that I have no affiliation with IUPUI, they just have it spelled out fairly well.

    I KNOW! Those numbers are astonishing, but the author of the article, who evidently was published in LA times in 1991 thought he had some validity. 1 trillion descendents like I said in 1 1/2 millenia is TOO high. And he probably miscalculated...but I always like to re assess what I read.

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    Re: Two by Two, We'll Fill the Planet

    Thanks Chief.

    I really wasn't very clear before. lol
    Base population growth tends to be geometric. There are some who were concerned about our abitity to grow sufficient food because they believed that our food production would be arithmatic. Instead it has turned out that our ability to grow food is geometric as well. As such food shortages are caused these days by natural disasters and politics.

    Now I'm sure your wondering what this has to do with the subject so bear with me. Base population growth is geometric...however... when technology increases that changes to an arithmatic growth and eventually a decline. The more technologically based a society is the lower the birth rate is until in "post-industrial" countries the only reason for continued growth is an influx of immigrants from non-"post-industrial" countries where the population growth is still geometric. (The one fact that the site you linked doesn't cover.) As a result as technology continues to spread throughout the world population #'s in general are expected to become generally arithmatic, then level off, then decline.

    Just imagine that the entire world is "growing" based on the blueline instead of the yellow.

    At the same time this is happening our food production is still increasing geometrically thereby freeing up more of the population % for technological development.

    So basically, no, we don't have to worry about overpopulating the earth and if we do colonize other planets it will be because we want to. If in the meantime that allows a decrease in population density on the earth then that is a good thing. Personally I think the day of high density cities is drawing to a close as we become more and more able to spread out into "suburbia" with high speed mass transit.

    That may be more then you wanted, but there's my opinion.

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